Sunday, February 9, 2020

What's Next for Qaeda After US Killing of Chief in Yemen?


The US killing of the leader of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in war-torn Yemen raises questions about the jihadist group's operations and its future.

President Donald Trump said the United States "conducted a counterterrorism operation" that eliminated Qassim al-Rimi, according to a White House statement released on Thursday.

But what does this mean for AQAP and for Yemen, where a five-year war between the government -- backed by a Saudi-led military coalition -- and the Iran-aligned Houthi militias has crippled the country?

- How significant was Qassim al-Rimi? -

Al-Rimi was named AQAP leader after his predecessor, Nasir al-Wuhayshi, was killed in a US drone strike on Yemen in June 2015.

He was one of the group's founders in 2009 and its first military commander.

"Al-Rimi's death is significant," said Gregory Johnsen, a non-resident fellow at the Sana'a Center think tank.

"However, he was not a good leader for AQAP and since he took over in 2015, the group's international terrorist wing has atrophied badly."

Johnsen said the two most likely candidates to succeed Al-Rimi were Khalid Batarfi, reportedly running the group's external operations, and Saad bin Atef al-Awlaki, the group's leader in Yemen's Shabwa province.

According to Peter Salisbury, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, a successor will most likely be announced soon.

But, he added, it will not be "someone with the name brand recognition Al-Rimi had, and certainly not of the stature of his predecessor, Al-Wuhayshi".

- How will this affect AQAP's operations in Yemen? -

AQAP, along with other militant groups, has flourished in the chaos of the war between the Yemeni government and the Houthi insurgents.

But analysts say the group's abilities on the ground have dwindled over the years.

"Al-Rimi's skills as a military planner will be missed, but AQAP's ability to operate on the ground in Yemen had already diminished greatly," said Elisabeth Kendall, a researcher at the University of Oxford.

"In operational terms, its activity peaked in 2017 with over 270 domestic attacks, albeit mostly small scale."

Johnsen also said that AQAP's ability on the ground has weakened over the past decade, describing it as "a shadow of its former self".